by The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad is set to turn Samarkand into the centre of world chess from September 15–27, 2026. The Open competition begins on September 16 and features 208 teams, while the Women’s section has 192 teams—a combined 400-team field that surpasses the previous participation record of 380 teams at Budapest 2024.
For chess fans, however, the biggest question is simple: who has the strongest chance of winning the Open gold?
Based on the official starting list, team ratings, squad strength and recent Olympiad performances, here is our ChessBox.in assessment of the 10 teams most likely to shape the medal race.
1. United States – The Rating Favourite
Starting average: 2753
The United States enters Samarkand as the No. 1 seed, with an extraordinary lineup of Fabiano Caruana, Wesley So, Levon Aronian, Hans Niemann and Awonder Liang.
Caruana and So provide elite-level stability, while Aronian brings enormous Olympiad experience. Niemann adds dynamism and fighting spirit, and Liang gives the team further depth.
The key question is whether the American squad can maintain consistency on all four boards. In an 11-round Olympiad, that depth will matter enormously.
ChessBox.in assessment: One of the strongest gold contenders.
2. India – The Defending Champions
Starting average: 2735
India arrives as the defending Open champion, following its historic gold-medal performance at Budapest 2024. India scored 21 match points, four clear of the group tied for second.
The squad features:
R Praggnanandhaa, Arjun Erigaisi, D Gukesh, Nihal Sarin and Vidit Gujrathi, with GM Srinath Narayanan as captain.
The extraordinary feature of this team is depth. India can field multiple players capable of defeating the world’s strongest grandmasters.
Gukesh’s presence is particularly fascinating. The reigning World Champion is listed on board four, while Praggnanandhaa and Arjun are ranked ahead of him in the team’s provisional board order.
That is an extraordinary illustration of India’s current depth.
ChessBox.in assessment: The defending champions remain genuine favourites for gold.
3. Uzbekistan – The Home-Team Threat
Starting average: 2720
Uzbekistan is seeded third and has a powerful young core led by Javokhir Sindarov and Nodirbek Abdusattorov. The two are ranked among the world’s elite, with Sindarov listed at 2778 and Abdusattorov at 2762 in the Olympiad starting list.
The hosts also carry the confidence of having won the 2022 Olympiad.
Playing at home in Samarkand adds another dimension. The pressure will be significant, but so will the support.
ChessBox.in assessment: Possibly the most dangerous team outside the top two seeds.
4. China – The Experienced Giant
Starting average: 2707
China’s squad is led by Wei Yi and Ding Liren, supported by Yu Yangyi, Xu Xiangyu and Kong Xiangrui.
Wei Yi remains one of the world’s most technically gifted players, while former World Champion Ding Liren brings enormous experience of elite competition.
China’s challenge will be converting individual strength into consistent team results. In an Olympiad, four boards must work together every round.
ChessBox.in assessment: A serious medal contender with the potential to challenge for gold.
5. Germany – Led by Vincent Keymer
Starting average: 2677
Germany occupies fifth place in the starting list, with Vincent Keymer leading the team. Keymer is rated 2764 in the Olympiad starting list, making him one of the highest-rated individual players in the entire competition.
Matthias Bluebaum, Frederik Svane and Alexander Donchenko provide solid support.
Germany may not possess the same depth as India or the USA, but Keymer’s ability to score heavily on the top board could make a major difference.
ChessBox.in assessment: Strong medal outsider and a team capable of upsetting the favourites.
6. Netherlands – An Experienced European Force
Starting average: 2675
The Netherlands enters as the sixth seed with a strong team average of 2675.
Dutch chess has a long tradition of producing elite players, and the country’s team experience makes it dangerous in a long Swiss tournament.
The Netherlands may not receive as much attention as India, USA or Uzbekistan, but teams such as this can quietly accumulate points before entering the final medal calculations.
ChessBox.in assessment: A potential dark horse for the top five.
7. Azerbaijan – The Experienced Challengers
Starting average: 2667
Azerbaijan is seeded seventh and brings significant experience at the highest level. The team is captained by Teimour Radjabov, one of the country’s most accomplished grandmasters.
Azerbaijan’s strength lies in its ability to compete against established chess nations without being intimidated by ratings.
The team will need a strong start to remain in medal contention during the second half of the tournament.
ChessBox.in assessment: A dangerous opponent for any favourite.
8. Hungary – A Traditional Chess Power
Starting average: 2652
Hungary occupies eighth position in the starting list.
Hungarian chess has produced generations of world-class players, and its current team combines experience with a strong competitive culture.
The challenge is straightforward: Hungary must outperform its rating expectations against teams with significantly higher averages.
ChessBox.in assessment: A realistic top-10 contender and potential giant-killer.
9. France – Quality and Individual Strength
Starting average: 2638
France is seeded ninth, with a 2638 team average.
The French team traditionally combines experienced grandmasters with younger talent. Its biggest challenge in Samarkand will be maintaining consistency against the deepest squads.
In a tournament where one unexpected 2.5–1.5 victory can change the standings dramatically, France has the potential to climb well above its seeding.
ChessBox.in assessment: A strong dark horse for the upper half of the standings.
10. Armenia – The Olympiad Specialists
Starting average: 2637
Armenia completes our top 10 at a 2637 average.
Armenia has one of the richest team traditions in modern chess and has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to outperform rating expectations in Olympiad competition.
The country’s experience in team chess makes it particularly dangerous in the late stages, when pressure and match management become critical.
ChessBox.in assessment: An experienced team capable of upsetting higher seeds.
The Three Teams That Stand Out
Looking beyond the raw ratings, three teams appear particularly compelling.
India: Depth
India’s greatest weapon is the extraordinary strength of its entire squad. Having the World Champion on board four tells its own story.
United States: Rating Strength
The USA begins as the highest-rated team and has a formidable combination of elite experience and younger talent.
Uzbekistan: Momentum + Home Advantage
The hosts combine a young generation of super-grandmasters with the confidence of their 2022 Olympiad victory.
Why the Olympiad Is Different from an Individual Tournament
This is perhaps the most important point for chess fans.
The strongest individual player does not automatically determine the strongest team.
The Olympiad is an 11-round team competition, with four players representing each team. The official tournament schedule runs from September 16 through September 27, with a rest day after Round 6.
A team can have one player scoring exceptionally well and still fail to win if the remaining boards consistently concede points.
As FIDE’s Michael Rahal aptly noted in the tournament preview, Olympiad success depends on keeping all four players performing together over a long competition.
That makes team chemistry, preparation, captaincy and psychological resilience just as important as Elo.
India vs USA vs Uzbekistan: The Gold-Medal Battle
The most intriguing storyline could be a three-way battle.
India has the defending-champion momentum and perhaps the deepest squad.
USA has the highest team rating and enormous experience.
Uzbekistan has home advantage, a world-class young core and the confidence of its 2022 triumph.
China should not be underestimated either. With Wei Yi and Ding Liren, it possesses enough individual quality to disrupt the expected medal order.
ChessBox.in Prediction
If we had to identify the three leading gold contenders before the first move, our ranking would be:
1. India
2. United States
3. Uzbekistan
But the margins are extremely small.
India’s depth gives it a slight advantage in our assessment, particularly because the defending champions have already demonstrated their ability to handle the unique pressures of an Olympiad.
The USA’s rating advantage could easily overturn that prediction, while Uzbekistan could become the tournament’s biggest story if home advantage translates into consistently strong performances.
One thing is certain: Samarkand 2026 will not be decided by one superstar. It will be decided by the team that can produce four strong performances, round after round.
The Bigger Story
The 2026 Olympiad is about more than medals. With 208 Open teams and 192 Women’s teams, Samarkand will set a new participation record. The event also coincides with the FIDE Congress, the Chess Olympiad for People with Disabilities and the FIDE Summit on Chess in Education, making Samarkand a global meeting point for the chess community.
For Indian chess fans, the stakes are particularly high. India is defending both its Open and Women’s Olympiad titles, after winning both competitions in Budapest in 2024.
The question now is not whether India has the strength to win again.
Can anyone stop them?
